THE latest poll in today’s Irish Independent brings some good news to Fine Gael and should settle party jitters following a tumultuous week, but Enda Kenny’s position is far from safe.
The loss of George Lee, who explained cogently why he left and what was wrong with Fine Gael and Irish politics on Pat Kenny's Frontline program last Monday night, does not appear to have significantly damaged the party.
Fine Gael, at 34 per cent, would undoubtedly be in an incredibly strong position to form the next Government. Were that percentage repeated on election day, the party should be able to comfortably win around 60 seats.
This can be accounted for by the built in “big mo” bias, to abuse a West Wing phrase, in the Irish PRstv electoral system. The party would under a list system get 34 per cent of the available 166 seats, about 55. However a typical seat bonus of of anything from five to 10 seats would be normal under the Irish system, as the final seats in tight races and five seaters usually fall toward the party with momentum.
The reverse is true of Fianna Fail. Where its electoral results repeated on election day, the party would likely lose 30 seats.
Garret FitzGerald, writing recently in The Irish Times, suggests that the media were misreading polling data wildly, and were ignoring the margin of error built into every poll (the confidence interval around a point estimate, for example a poll suggesting a two per cent rise for Fine Gael, or a one per cent dip, is meaningless as the confidence interval is almost always +/- three per cent).
This is undoubtedly true, and screaming headlines of recent Fianna Fail come backs after slight gains in one poll were unfounded. However there is now very strong evidence, from a range of opinion polls and during a number of months, that Fine Gael is at or around the low to mid 30s, Fianna Fail is at or around 25 to 27 per cent (historic lows) and Labour are stuck in high teen percentage support.
Equally, it is evident from all polling data that Enda Kenny has failed to connect with the Irish public and just one in four people are satisfied with his performance as leader.
The belief in the public that Kenny is a lightweight and somewhat cold and aloof sits uncomfortable, some might argue, with the reality. Kenny is one of the most affable in the Dail, in person he is warm and generous and is extremely hard working.
However he has never been a good television performer, he is not a naturally aggressive debater or orator, and in one and one counters with Brian Cowen he has come off as loser on many occasions. That may be why the public at large view him as weak.
Given Lee’s resignation, and talk of “murmurings” within party ranks, and lets be honest the party’s love of building guillotines to cut off it’s leader’s head, the question remains, how long more can Kenny last?
Some years ago the former Fine Gael TD Austin Deasy famously said there was “blood on the walls” following the ousting of John Bruton. Bruton survived an initial challenge but lost the leadership some months later after a second heave.
TDs within the party say Kenny has their full support, but privately a number concede his position is secure only “for now”. No one in the parliamentary party has as yet openly challenged him, but unless his own performances drastically improve in the coming weeks and months that may well change.
TF
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